Winning Portfolio Strategies in the Lloyd's Market

London, UK – 1 July 2025 – Hampden Risk Partners (HRP) and Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR) today announced the release of their co-produced white paper, “Winning Portfolio Strategies: Using innovative AI models to predict relative performance”

The report introduces a paradigm shift in underwriting performance prediction within the complex Lloyd’s of London market, leveraging advanced AI models inspired by sports analytics to forecast relative performance.

Traditional methods often fall short in accurately predicting underwriting performance due to the heavy influence of market cycles on historical absolute figures. This white paper highlights the crucial shift to understanding relative performance – how a syndicate performs compared to its peers – offering a more stable and insightful indicator of underlying capabilities, independent of broader market fluctuations.

“This white paper explores how we assess and forecast performance within the Lloyd’s market,” said Markus Gesmann, co-founder of ICMR. “The principle of predicting relative performance, which is so crucial for determining winners in sports, is directly applicable to the Lloyd’s market. ICMR has developed an innovative AI-powered model, inspired by these very techniques, to predict the relative loss ratio performance of Lloyd’s syndicates, utilising the peer performance data curated by ICMR. Our analysis provides objective, data-driven insights that not only enhance accuracy but also bring greater transparency to portfolio management.”

“At Hampden Risk Partners, our distinctive approach involves backing underwriters with an impressive track record of outperformance, providing them with capacity to access greater market opportunities and improved terms, rather than building internal underwriting teams,” commented Chris Sharp, Active Underwriter at HRP. “The analysis by ICMR directly supports our strategy by demonstrating that our approach is successfully targeting growth with quality counterparties, while simultaneously reducing volatility and improving potential reward. Providing a sophisticated and predictive view of future performance enhances transparency and builds confidence with our investors. For Hampden Risk Partners, embracing the prediction of relative performance is not just an analytical exercise – it is a winning strategy.”

This strategic collaboration underscores the power of advanced analytics in enhancing underwriting strategy, optimising capital allocation, improving syndicate management, and gaining a significant competitive edge in the highly competitive Lloyd’s market.

About Hampden Risk Partners (HRP): Hampden Risk Partners (HRP) Syndicate 2689 is a highly specialised intelligent follow-only syndicate in the Lloyd’s market. Since 2023, HRP has focused on supporting and collaborating with accomplished underwriters at Lloyd’s, providing capacity to those with impressive track records of outperformance rather than building internal underwriting teams. Their non-competing intelligent follow-only model attracts top-performing syndicates seeking strategic partnerships, employing a disciplined partner selection process to optimise its portfolio.

About Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR): Insurance Capital Markets Research (ICMR) is a quantitative research firm dedicated to delivering innovative solutions for the complex challenges in the global specialty (re)insurance industry. ICMR specialises in providing data, in-depth analysis, and prospective modelling of Lloyd’s syndicate portfolios, empowering strategies like follow-only approaches and investment funds. Founded in early 2020 by the former heads of research and analysis of Lloyd’s, ICMR is recognised as the leading independent Lloyd’s quantitative analyst and launched the RISX Equity Index in 2021.

Contacts:

Markus Gesmann
Insurance Capital Markets Research
[email protected]

Chris Sharp
Hampden Risk Partners
[email protected]