ICMR predicts Lloyd’s combined ratio below 90% as RISX Index hits historic 10,000 mark
Record-breaking RISX performance signals a sub-90% combined ratio and 20%+ ROC for the Lloyd’s market.
ICMR’s latest analysis of the global specialty (re)insurance market indicates a banner year for Lloyd’s of London. Based on the reported results of the RISX index constituents to date (17 out of 27 companies), ICMR is projecting a combined ratio of below 90% for the marketplace in its upcoming 2025 results.
This exceptional underwriting performance is expected to be paired with a return on capital exceeding 20% for the third consecutive year, signalling a period of sustained, high-quality profitability for the world’s leading insurance hub.
A Liquid Alternative for Lloyd’s-Style Returns
Historically, accessing the unique returns of the Lloyd’s market has been a challenge for many investors. Supporting syndicates with capital directly—the traditional route—remains a complex and often illiquid process.
The RISX index demonstrates a compelling alternative: an equity strategy based on the listed owners of Lloyd’s businesses. By providing a proxy for the marketplace as if it were a single listed company, the RISX index offers investors a liquid, transparent way to capture Lloyd’s-like returns through the public markets, bypassing the structural hurdles of direct capital support.
RISX Index Shatters 10,000 Milestone
The strength of this investment thesis was visually confirmed last Friday, 20 February 2026, when the RISX net total return index exceeded the 10,000 mark for the first time since its inception in June 2006. That represents an annualised compound return of 12% over a 20 year period, which compares very favourably with Lloyd’s itself, whose return does not compound.
A Masterclass in Outperformance
While broader equity markets have seen a muted start to the year, the specialty sector is surging. The RISX index is up 6.9% YTD (as at 20 Feb 2026), significantly distancing itself from both general and sector-specific insurance benchmarks:
| Index (Net Total Return USD) | 2026 YTD Performance (2026-02-20) |
|---|---|
| RISX | +6.90% |
| S&P 500 | +1.05% |
| S&P 500 Insurance Select | -4.09% |
| STOXX Europe 600 Insurance | -1.00% |
M&A Tailwinds: Zurich and Beazley
A key driver of this recent momentum was the announcement of a potential acquisition of Beazley by Zurich. This move did more than just boost Beazley’s share price; it acted as a catalyst for the broader sector, lifting peers like Hiscox and reaffirming the scarcity value of high-performing specialty platforms.
What’s Next: Deep Dive into Syndicate Performance
While the headline figures are record-breaking, the real story lies in the data. ICMR will provide a comprehensive analysis of the Lloyd’s results following the publication of the 2025 Annual Report.
- Mid-April 2026: Target release for the next iteration of the Syndicate Statistics book.
- ICMR.Data Update: A full refresh of our platform, featuring the financial statements of all syndicates and a granular look at gross underwriting performance by line of business.
These upcoming releases will allow stakeholders to identify exactly which syndicates are the primary engines behind the market’s projected sub-90% combined ratio.
For more information about the RISX index, including Factsheet, White Paper and methodology visit risxindex.com